With the nation's economy in a sharp
slowdown or a recession, an increasing number of
Americans are battening down the hatches and preparing
for stormy weather.
Despite a strong finish to a
roller-coaster ride on Wall Street, a recent rise in
jobless claims and a drop in the leading economic
indicators point to continuing weaknesses in the
economy.
The biggest thunder clouds still come from the
troubled housing market. The median home price has
declined in many areas; 20 percent in San Diego
County, for instance, since peaking in 2005.
But the rough seas have extended far beyond housing
prices.
Wall Street is in its deepest downturn since the
collapse of the dot-com boom in 2000. Since hitting a
peak last fall, the Dow Jones industrial average has
declined 13 percent, the broader Standard & Poor's 500
is down nearly 16 percent, and the Nasdaq is down 21
percent.
"People are rightfully worried, uncomfortable and
uneasy with this market," said Jack Blankinship, a
financial planner with Blankinship & Foster in San
Diego County.
The effects of the downturn include:
- Unemployment. The Labor Department recently
reported that 378,000 workers filed for unemployment -
a 22,000 increase from the previous week. That was the
highest rate of increase in two months.
- Less lucrative savings. Thanks to the Federal
Reserve's interest rate cuts - including a recent
three-quarter point cut - accruals on bank accounts
and certificates of deposit have slowed to a crawl,
stripping away the growth potential for the savings of
retirees and other conservative investors.
- Tighter credit. Despite the Fed's actions,
tighter restrictions on mortgages, credit cards,
student loans, auto loans and other loans are making
it increasingly hard for people or companies to obtain
credit. For most homeowners, home-equity loans - which
helped fuel the economic expansion between 2003 and
2005 - have become unattainable.
- Inflation. Consumer prices have been rising,
driven by record-high spikes in gasoline and fuel.
From February 2007 to February 2008, prices rose 4
percent.
- Declining net worth. Under the weight of all the
items listed above, the net worth of the American
household declined by nearly 1 percent in the fourth
quarter of last year, dropping for the first time in
six years. Economists say they believe net worth has
continued to erode this year.
- Spending cutbacks. Consumer spending has been on
the decline, dropping by more than one-half percent in
February. Corporate spending also is slowing. In a
recent poll, corporate chief financial officers
predicted that spending will increase only 3.3 percent
this year - barely ahead of the projected 3.0 percent
inflation rate.
"People might want to hunker down a little bit,
depending on their individual circumstances,"
Blankinship said.
But is hunkering down the only answer? Should
people be taking other steps to protect themselves
during a time of economic uncertainty?
Experts say there are strategies that people can
use to weather the downturn. Among other things,
investors should make sure their portfolios are
broadly diversified, consumers should be more
particular about what they buy and how much they pay
for it, drivers should watch their gasoline usage, and
home sellers should take advantage of the longer sales
times by sprucing up their homes.
INVESTMENTS
With Wall Street in turmoil, it's hard to know
where to put your money. Not even the experts agree on
what to do. Here are a few tips from investment
analysts:
- Remain calm. As long as you have a relatively
long horizon - if you're not retiring in the next five
years, for example - you may not want to do anything
drastic with your investments. Paul Hynes, investment
management analyst with the Burns Advisory Group in
San Diego, says that pulling out of the market could
be a mistake, since it would be hard to get back in
once stocks start climbing again.
- Be cautious. If you've been on the sidelines, now
is probably too early to get back into the market,
Blankinship said. He said it will take at least four
to six months before the market has stabilized to the
point where investors could feel confident about
re-entering.
- Seek strong investments. Investors should look
for conservative, high-profile companies that have a
long tradition of distributing dividends to investors,
Blankinship said. Low-cost index mutual funds or
exchange-traded funds are also a good choice, many
advisers said. A key goal is to diversify among
different types of assets, so that if one falters, you
won't be stuck with your eggs in a single basket.
- Consider municipal bonds. Gary Recker, senior
investment adviser at Northern Trust in San Diego,
said current prices make municipal bonds a good
investment right now. Recker said that
middle-of-the-road investors with 25 percent to 35
percent of their portfolios in muni bonds might
consider boosting that by 5 percent.
- Dean Calbreath
SAVINGS
One of the best ways to stay afloat through tough
economic times is to have an established savings plan,
says Joseph Benoit, Union Bank of California's market
president for San Diego County and the Inland Empire.
Benoit had several tips:
- Choose the right account. Ask about standard
savings, money markets and certificates of deposit.
Generally, the longer the CD term, the greater the
return. But CDs usually have early withdrawal
penalties. Money market and savings accounts are in
most cases liquid.
- Shop around. All savings accounts aren't created
equal. To find the ones with the highest interest
rates, look in the paper, look online or pick up the
phone and call some financial institutions in your
neighborhood.
- Pay attention to your money. You shouldn't
automatically renew your CDs when they come due, said
Tomas Valles, a financial center manager for
Washington Mutual. Check to see if there are new
products that have higher rates of return. Interest
rates can fluctuate dramatically.
- Emmet Pierce
HOUSING
Your home-equity nest egg may be smelling a bit
rotten these days, what with the 20 percent drop in
overall prices since the 2005 peak. But as Scarlett
O'Hara and Century 21-Carole Realty agent Bob Fields
said, tomorrow is another day.
"When the market does turn, which could take a
while, things will start to move very quickly," Fields
said. "At that point, people will be saying, 'I should
have bought back then.'"
But until then:
- Buyers, negotiate aggressively. Use a savvy real
estate agent to drive a hard bargain. Lower-priced
foreclosures and short-sales (homes sold for less than
their mortgage amount) may be tempting, but they can
involve time-consuming complications. Wait for lower
prices at your own risk, because higher interest rates
could wipe out any savings.
- Sellers, be patient. Plan for your home to remain
unsold for at least six months. Make sure the property
is in prime condition (new paint and spiffed up
landscaping are cheap and quick upgrades). Try your
best to stave off a foreclosure, because your
long-term credit rating will suffer.
- Owners, spruce up your homes. If your mortgage is
paid up and you have some money in the bank, consider
remodeling your home while contractors are hungry for
business and home-improvement loans are at relatively
low rates.
- Renters, be prepared. Landlords may seek to raise
rents to cover their high costs left over from buying
at the top of the market. Be prepared to move if the
property is foreclosed upon. And be prepared to get a
roommate or otherwise reduce your expenses if the rent
gets too high.
- Roger Showley
TRANSPORTATION
With gasoline prices projected to rise, maybe
approaching $4 a gallon in many places, motorists face
rapidly rising driving expenses.
Tips from Marie Montgomery, spokeswoman for the
Automobile Club of Southern California:
- Be price-conscious. Shop for the best prices but
don't drive far out of your way for a bargain. Take
advantage of gas rebates on credit cards.
- Conserve energy. Avoid excessive idling, use
cruise control to maintain a steady speed, minimize
braking and air-conditioning, consolidate trips and
use the most gas-efficient vehicle when possible.
- Share the ride. Take the bus, train or trolley -
and car pool, even part of the time.
- Charge your kids. If you make your teenagers pay
for the gas they use, they'll quickly learn to be wise
and prudent drivers. They could even end up walking
more.
- Roger Showley
FOOD
With food costs rising at a rate greater than any
other time in the last 17 years, it makes sense to
take the time to comparison shop and monitor weekly
ads before buying groceries. While clipping coupons
certainly helps defray costs, it's not the only way to
save money, say the experts.
"My mantra is: Saving money on groceries is not
about changing the way you eat but about changing the
way you buy the food you like," says Stephanie Nelson,
who founded couponmom.com seven years ago.
Among her tips:
- Know the prices for the top 10 food items you
typically buy and track those for five to six weeks.
Once you know the lowest price for those items, buy
them when they hit those prices and stock up. By the
time you run out, those products should be on sale
again.
- Clip coupons. You'll find loads of them in the
Sunday newspaper, but you can also go online. Matching
the coupons with store sales yields the most
impressive savings. Nelson estimates that a family of
four can save up to $200 a week using coupons.
- Get familiar with your stores' savings programs
and use their loyalty cards. For instance, does the
store double coupons? With buy one, get one free
offers, can you use two coupons with that? Does the
store accept coupons printed on the Internet? Does it
have a senior discount day?
- "Two-fer" deals. For those who want to eat out
occasionally, be on the lookout for deals where you
buy one entree and get the second free. Local
publications and Web sites offer such coupons.
- Lori Weisberg
CLOTHING
Bargain hunters don't have to sacrifice fashion to
trim their clothing budget. Sally Gary, author of "The
Best Deals and Steals in San Diego," points out that
"you truly can have a fabulous wardrobe even if you're
on a slim budget if you look at alternatives to the
mall for your fashion."
Here are some of her tips:
- Head for the factory outlets, but call in advance
to see if they're getting a new shipment in or if
they've just had a sale, in which case merchandise
will be cleared out. Go to the outlet Web sites first
to see if you can score some discount coupons.
- Check out off-price stores such as T.J. Maxx,
Ross, Loehmann's, Kohl's, Marshalls and the Burlington
Coat Factory. They frequently get the same clothes
being shown in the department stores but three weeks
later or more.
- Don't forget thrift stores and rummage sales,
especially in upscale neighborhoods. Time your visits
to thrift stores with their delivery schedules.
- Get on the e-mail lists of department stores to
get advance notice of sales, and watch the newspapers
for coupons.