Another Alert Consumer - Retire?

THE ALERT CONSUMER

Consumers taking multiple steps to weather economic downturn

By Dean Calbreath
Copley News Service


DEAN CALBREATH
TOUGH TIMES - Amid a turbulent economy, Americans are finding ways to shelter their nest eggs. CNS illustration.
 


 

With the nation's economy in a sharp slowdown or a recession, an increasing number of Americans are battening down the hatches and preparing for stormy weather.

Despite a strong finish to a roller-coaster ride on Wall Street, a recent rise in jobless claims and a drop in the leading economic indicators point to continuing weaknesses in the economy.

The biggest thunder clouds still come from the troubled housing market. The median home price has declined in many areas; 20 percent in San Diego County, for instance, since peaking in 2005.

But the rough seas have extended far beyond housing prices.

Wall Street is in its deepest downturn since the collapse of the dot-com boom in 2000. Since hitting a peak last fall, the Dow Jones industrial average has declined 13 percent, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 is down nearly 16 percent, and the Nasdaq is down 21 percent.

"People are rightfully worried, uncomfortable and uneasy with this market," said Jack Blankinship, a financial planner with Blankinship & Foster in San Diego County.

The effects of the downturn include:

- Unemployment. The Labor Department recently reported that 378,000 workers filed for unemployment - a 22,000 increase from the previous week. That was the highest rate of increase in two months.

- Less lucrative savings. Thanks to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts - including a recent three-quarter point cut - accruals on bank accounts and certificates of deposit have slowed to a crawl, stripping away the growth potential for the savings of retirees and other conservative investors.

- Tighter credit. Despite the Fed's actions, tighter restrictions on mortgages, credit cards, student loans, auto loans and other loans are making it increasingly hard for people or companies to obtain credit. For most homeowners, home-equity loans - which helped fuel the economic expansion between 2003 and 2005 - have become unattainable.

- Inflation. Consumer prices have been rising, driven by record-high spikes in gasoline and fuel. From February 2007 to February 2008, prices rose 4 percent.

- Declining net worth. Under the weight of all the items listed above, the net worth of the American household declined by nearly 1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, dropping for the first time in six years. Economists say they believe net worth has continued to erode this year.

- Spending cutbacks. Consumer spending has been on the decline, dropping by more than one-half percent in February. Corporate spending also is slowing. In a recent poll, corporate chief financial officers predicted that spending will increase only 3.3 percent this year - barely ahead of the projected 3.0 percent inflation rate.

"People might want to hunker down a little bit, depending on their individual circumstances," Blankinship said.

But is hunkering down the only answer? Should people be taking other steps to protect themselves during a time of economic uncertainty?

Experts say there are strategies that people can use to weather the downturn. Among other things, investors should make sure their portfolios are broadly diversified, consumers should be more particular about what they buy and how much they pay for it, drivers should watch their gasoline usage, and home sellers should take advantage of the longer sales times by sprucing up their homes.

INVESTMENTS

With Wall Street in turmoil, it's hard to know where to put your money. Not even the experts agree on what to do. Here are a few tips from investment analysts:

- Remain calm. As long as you have a relatively long horizon - if you're not retiring in the next five years, for example - you may not want to do anything drastic with your investments. Paul Hynes, investment management analyst with the Burns Advisory Group in San Diego, says that pulling out of the market could be a mistake, since it would be hard to get back in once stocks start climbing again.

- Be cautious. If you've been on the sidelines, now is probably too early to get back into the market, Blankinship said. He said it will take at least four to six months before the market has stabilized to the point where investors could feel confident about re-entering.

- Seek strong investments. Investors should look for conservative, high-profile companies that have a long tradition of distributing dividends to investors, Blankinship said. Low-cost index mutual funds or exchange-traded funds are also a good choice, many advisers said. A key goal is to diversify among different types of assets, so that if one falters, you won't be stuck with your eggs in a single basket.

- Consider municipal bonds. Gary Recker, senior investment adviser at Northern Trust in San Diego, said current prices make municipal bonds a good investment right now. Recker said that middle-of-the-road investors with 25 percent to 35 percent of their portfolios in muni bonds might consider boosting that by 5 percent.

- Dean Calbreath

SAVINGS

One of the best ways to stay afloat through tough economic times is to have an established savings plan, says Joseph Benoit, Union Bank of California's market president for San Diego County and the Inland Empire. Benoit had several tips:

- Choose the right account. Ask about standard savings, money markets and certificates of deposit. Generally, the longer the CD term, the greater the return. But CDs usually have early withdrawal penalties. Money market and savings accounts are in most cases liquid.

- Shop around. All savings accounts aren't created equal. To find the ones with the highest interest rates, look in the paper, look online or pick up the phone and call some financial institutions in your neighborhood.

- Pay attention to your money. You shouldn't automatically renew your CDs when they come due, said Tomas Valles, a financial center manager for Washington Mutual. Check to see if there are new products that have higher rates of return. Interest rates can fluctuate dramatically.

- Emmet Pierce

HOUSING

Your home-equity nest egg may be smelling a bit rotten these days, what with the 20 percent drop in overall prices since the 2005 peak. But as Scarlett O'Hara and Century 21-Carole Realty agent Bob Fields said, tomorrow is another day.

"When the market does turn, which could take a while, things will start to move very quickly," Fields said. "At that point, people will be saying, 'I should have bought back then.'"

But until then:

- Buyers, negotiate aggressively. Use a savvy real estate agent to drive a hard bargain. Lower-priced foreclosures and short-sales (homes sold for less than their mortgage amount) may be tempting, but they can involve time-consuming complications. Wait for lower prices at your own risk, because higher interest rates could wipe out any savings.

- Sellers, be patient. Plan for your home to remain unsold for at least six months. Make sure the property is in prime condition (new paint and spiffed up landscaping are cheap and quick upgrades). Try your best to stave off a foreclosure, because your long-term credit rating will suffer.

- Owners, spruce up your homes. If your mortgage is paid up and you have some money in the bank, consider remodeling your home while contractors are hungry for business and home-improvement loans are at relatively low rates.

- Renters, be prepared. Landlords may seek to raise rents to cover their high costs left over from buying at the top of the market. Be prepared to move if the property is foreclosed upon. And be prepared to get a roommate or otherwise reduce your expenses if the rent gets too high.

- Roger Showley

TRANSPORTATION

With gasoline prices projected to rise, maybe approaching $4 a gallon in many places, motorists face rapidly rising driving expenses.

Tips from Marie Montgomery, spokeswoman for the Automobile Club of Southern California:

- Be price-conscious. Shop for the best prices but don't drive far out of your way for a bargain. Take advantage of gas rebates on credit cards.

- Conserve energy. Avoid excessive idling, use cruise control to maintain a steady speed, minimize braking and air-conditioning, consolidate trips and use the most gas-efficient vehicle when possible.

- Share the ride. Take the bus, train or trolley - and car pool, even part of the time.

- Charge your kids. If you make your teenagers pay for the gas they use, they'll quickly learn to be wise and prudent drivers. They could even end up walking more.

- Roger Showley

FOOD

With food costs rising at a rate greater than any other time in the last 17 years, it makes sense to take the time to comparison shop and monitor weekly ads before buying groceries. While clipping coupons certainly helps defray costs, it's not the only way to save money, say the experts.

"My mantra is: Saving money on groceries is not about changing the way you eat but about changing the way you buy the food you like," says Stephanie Nelson, who founded couponmom.com seven years ago.

Among her tips:

- Know the prices for the top 10 food items you typically buy and track those for five to six weeks. Once you know the lowest price for those items, buy them when they hit those prices and stock up. By the time you run out, those products should be on sale again.

- Clip coupons. You'll find loads of them in the Sunday newspaper, but you can also go online. Matching the coupons with store sales yields the most impressive savings. Nelson estimates that a family of four can save up to $200 a week using coupons.

- Get familiar with your stores' savings programs and use their loyalty cards. For instance, does the store double coupons? With buy one, get one free offers, can you use two coupons with that? Does the store accept coupons printed on the Internet? Does it have a senior discount day?

- "Two-fer" deals. For those who want to eat out occasionally, be on the lookout for deals where you buy one entree and get the second free. Local publications and Web sites offer such coupons.

- Lori Weisberg

CLOTHING

Bargain hunters don't have to sacrifice fashion to trim their clothing budget. Sally Gary, author of "The Best Deals and Steals in San Diego," points out that "you truly can have a fabulous wardrobe even if you're on a slim budget if you look at alternatives to the mall for your fashion."

Here are some of her tips:

- Head for the factory outlets, but call in advance to see if they're getting a new shipment in or if they've just had a sale, in which case merchandise will be cleared out. Go to the outlet Web sites first to see if you can score some discount coupons.

- Check out off-price stores such as T.J. Maxx, Ross, Loehmann's, Kohl's, Marshalls and the Burlington Coat Factory. They frequently get the same clothes being shown in the department stores but three weeks later or more.

- Don't forget thrift stores and rummage sales, especially in upscale neighborhoods. Time your visits to thrift stores with their delivery schedules.

- Get on the e-mail lists of department stores to get advance notice of sales, and watch the newspapers for coupons.

- Lori Weisberg

Visit Copley News Service at www.copleynews.com.

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