Almost eight
weeks after the federal income tax deadline, most
Americans are just beginning to get those much-vaunted
tax rebates that are supposed to stimulate the
economy.After
more than a month of wiring the first batch of checks
electronically, the Internal Revenue Service began
sending the checks out by mail, based on the last
two-digits of the recipients' Social Security numbers.
If your Social
Security number ends between 00 and 18,
congratulations! You've probably either gotten your
check or it's in the mail!
If your Social
Security number ends with 99, my condolences. You
probably won't get your check until mid-July.
For the record - and
to answer a common question of readers who keep
calling in - the schedule goes like this: If your
Social Security number ends in 19-25, your check
should be in the mail; 26-38, the week ending June 6;
39-51, the week ending June 13; 52-63, June 20; 64-75,
June 27; 76-87, July 4; and finally 88-99 the week of
July 11.
The staggering of
these checks - which range from $600 for a single
taxpayer to $1,800 for, say, a taxpaying couple with
two kids - could be one reason we're not seeing a
dramatic pickup in our stagnant economy. To qualify
for the full rebate, taxpayers need to make less than
$75,000 per individual or $150,000 per couple.
The checks were
intended for us to spend, spend, spend so that
retailers could ring up more sales and manufacturers -
at least whatever manufacturers are still left in this
country - could get more orders and hire more
employees.
So far, that massive
burst of spending hasn't happened. And there are
several reasons why the stimulus may not produce any
major economic boost.
For one thing, the
effects of inflation could sharply erode the value of
the rebate checks. With gas going for $50 per tank or
higher and a supermarket basket full of goods
amounting to far more, a good chunk of the $600 could
be eaten up by the necessities of life.
"You can expect to see
a lot of the rebate money going into gasoline, most of
which is imported from overseas, so the stimulative
impact on the economy will be less than what it could
have been," said Stephen Conroy, economist at the
University of San Diego.
In addition, most
Americans may choose to use the rebate checks to pay
down their bills.
On average, Americans
owe $2,342 per person on their credit cards alone,
according to TransUnion, a Chicago-based credit
tracking firm. Credit card usage has been climbing
since the housing market went south, since homeowners
can no longer use their equity to finance major
purchases.
According to
TransUnion, the areas that relied most heavily on
adjustable rate mortgages are the areas where
consumers are using their credit cards most heavily to
finance their debts. The rebate checks could help
Americans pay off a portion of their bills.
That won't stimulate
the economy in the short run, although it might be
better over the long term.
"Our nation has been
living on debt under the label of consumerism for far
too long," said Scott Spiker, chief executive officer
of First Command Financial Services. "When we have an
economy that's just based on spending more money, we
get into trouble."
If you want to see how
some of your fellow Americans are spending their
rebates, check out
www.howispentmystimulus.com, a Web site by New
York copywriter Rudy Adler. Around 300 people have
written to tell what they are spending their money on,
complete with photographs.
Adler's bloggers might
not represent how most Americans will spend their
money, but it's noteworthy that many of them are using
the money to either build their savings and
investments or pay off credit cards, student loans,
mortgages, medical bills, rents or other debts.
"I think I'll keep my
money in savings," wrote Kate Scott, a banker in
Minneapolis. "Or maybe in my mattress.... It's
probably a better interest rate than any bank is
offering anyway."
Other people used the
money for food, medicine and other necessities. An
elderly couple used their money for prescription
drugs. A father spent his rebate on speech therapy for
his autistic child, which his insurers had declined to
pay for.
On the other hand,
dozens of people spent the money on big-ticket
electronics, trips or extravagances. A 28-year-old San
Diego administrative assistant with the screen name
Eriness wrote that she used her rebate to go
skydiving.
Amy W., an office
manager in Arizona, will use the money to come to San
Diego's Comic-Con in late July, where she and her
fiance can "have a nice vacation and some fun, and buy
stuff we don't need!"
Will this spending
stimulate the economy? Maybe. Maybe not. Much of the
money is being spent on imported goods, which will do
little to help the domestic economy.
A woman with the
screen name of Seadove wrote that all of the clothes
she bought with her rebate came from Southeast Asia,
Central America and Africa. "Does that stimulate our
country?" she asked.
Others planned to
stimulate the economies of France or Mexico by using
the rebates for foreign travel.
For those lucky people
who have enough money they don't need to pay bills,
buy necessities or save for retirement, San Diego
attorney Stanley Zubel has a suggestion for what to do
with the rebate: Give it away.
"Before you splurge on
that new high-definition TV or some other consumer
item, consider switching from the shopping channel to
the Third World hunger channel," he said. "There
you'll be treated to scenes of Haitian children eating
dried mud cakes because they can't afford rice."
Zubel said that unless
Americans are truly in need, they should consider
giving their money to agencies involved in hunger
relief overseas. Half a dozen people on Adler's blog
shared that sentiment, sending their money to such
charitable groups as food banks or microlending
organizations.
"The tax rebate is bad
policy: this should be going toward rebuilding our
infrastructure or helping the poor," said Bill, a
teacher in Columbus, Ohio. "So we sent our rebate to a
food bank, where it should have gone in the first
place! It's not like we couldn't have used the money,
and of course the car went into the shop this week for
the miraculous coincidence of $1,200 worth of repairs,
but it was the right thing to do."
Visit Copley News Service at
www.copleynews.com.